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04 · FORECAST

Model what happens next.

Static, backward-looking plans miss the feedback loops that drive overruns and panic buying. By the time a shortfall shows in a report, the cheap decision window has closed.

Simulation: how to hold Cyber Monday, three ways of buying the surge's compute ranked by utility and by their chance of being best

Overview

Capacity and demand forecasting for your compute estate, plus scenario simulation reconciled to your real numbers. Pure and deterministic: every date is an input, no clock inside. Forecasts you can defend to a board or an auditor, because the packet states the method, the history it ran on, and its error.

FORECASTING

Forecasts you can defend to a board.

  • Seasonal by design: next Tuesday looks like the last Tuesday, with no parameters to overfit three weeks of history
  • Cost basis: the bench figure first, the canary-measured figure once it exists
  • Pure and deterministic: every date is an input
Simulation: how to hold Cyber Monday, three ways of buying the surge's compute ranked by utility and by their chance of being best
BACKTEST

The number arrives with its error.

  • Each trailing week predicted from the week before it and scored against what happened
  • The packet states the method, the history and the error; the reviewer never takes the number on trust
  • A model we could not backtest on the history we hold is a model we do not ship
The Loop's review packet: the forecast with its interval, and the backtest's method, history and worst fold
SCENARIOS

Scenarios reconciled to your bill.

  • Campaign, launch, new customers: the team's assumptions next to the measured demand
  • See which hypotheses the data supports and which still need testing
  • Buy nothing until the reclaimed idle is spent
Decision board: each Cyber Monday strategy's surge-week cost, declined authorizations and headroom
OUTCOME MONITOR

Healthy, flagged, or rolled back.

  • The serving kernel's telemetry is judged against SLO rules every cycle
  • A shadow divergence flags without touching the tenant: the original still serves and the golden is kept for the rebuild
  • A breach unpins, records the rollback and notifies
The Loop: a shadow divergence flagged, with the original still serving
AI & GPU

Cost per token. Cost per GPU.

  • Inference cost attributed per model and per endpoint: cost per token, per request, per tenant
  • Fleet-wide GPU capacity and headroom, so you know what you can serve before you buy more
  • Route inference by performance per dollar and see what each decision saves
AI and GPU costs: each GPU host's utilization and monthly cost, and the cost-per-token trend by model
EXECUTIVE REPORT

One report, four desks.

  • Ranked actions per decision-maker, with the source window and the method stated
  • Financial figures labeled as scenarios or attributed costs, never added into a fake total
  • PDF on demand, with its sources
Executive summary: the CFO's view of billed spend, the month's forecast and the modeled savings
Simulation: how to hold Cyber Monday, three ways of buying the surge's compute ranked by utility and by their chance of being best
The Loop's review packet: the forecast with its interval, and the backtest's method, history and worst fold
Decision board: each Cyber Monday strategy's surge-week cost, declined authorizations and headroom
The Loop: a shadow divergence flagged, with the original still serving
AI and GPU costs: each GPU host's utilization and monthly cost, and the cost-per-token trend by model
Executive summary: the CFO's view of billed spend, the month's forecast and the modeled savings

BEFORE YOU START

Before you start

What horizon?

Weeks to twelve months, with every assumption stated and the backtest attached.

Which data feeds it?

Billing, kernel telemetry, serving telemetry from deployed kernels, and the projections your team provides.

Is a forecast a guarantee?

No. It is a scenario with its assumptions and its error visible. Results are measured after the change.

FLEX AXION

Five stages. One signal.

Compute Intelligence. Accelerated.